June ADP and SCotUS Rulings ?3

09:06 01-Jul-26


The ADP employment report for June came in at +98K jobs versus expectations for at least +110K and pay gains held steady at +4.4% YoY.  The job gains were evenly spread both geographically, and across industries.  For the real economy, this is lackluster as loss of healthcare will impact voters, but to the extent that markets care about ADP at all, they will only see this is as not increasing rate pressure.

Also worth noting are recent SCotUS rulings already covered by CrowdWisers:

On 6/30/26 11:44 AM, Esekla wrote:
The two that are important to markets affect mail in ballots and birthright citizenship, and both rulings represent further Trump smack downs, though neither is as impactful as the Cook decision below.  Some have also indicated that I should have pointed out that only Fed governors are being protected by the court, while Presidents have free rein with other agency heads, but the market only cares about the Fed, and the rest of us will just have to put up with rampant spam calls and fraud for another few years.

On 6/29/26 5:29 PM, Esekla wrote:
The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Fed Governor Cook today.  While this is positive for markets, this service had projected that the court would maintain the injunction over 5 months ago, and it locks in the call that we're experiencing the steepest stage of the Trump decline.