ceased ceasefire macro notes -2

09:31 08-Jul-26

Any other news this morning is likely to be upstaged by headlines that the ceasefire with Iran is over.  American equity futures are down big, and the Brent/WTI pair confirm with over 5% jumps above $78/74.  Currencies are mostly seeing the typical dollar strength response, but there are outliers bucking that trend.

This service has done well by downplaying the importance of statements from Tehran and the White House and it notes that this latest market moving news coincides with the latest ICE killing on American soil, but sees no reason to change strategy.

with the war against Iran and peace talks both festering, a retest of the recent high seems likely.

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