June Employment Reports and more +3

08:54 02-Jul-26


The BLS employment reports for June headlined at +57K jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate versus expectations for +115K and 4.3%.  The Participation Rate dropped by 3 tenths to 61.5% and the Employment Population Ratio declined 2 tenths to 59.0%.  Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% as forecast.

The initial reaction in American equity index futures is positive, and I expect that to have legs, because the currency movement toward a weaker dollar is even more pronounced.  For the real economy, though, the reinforcement of ADP shows is that the job market is becoming even more frozen, but the Fed will gloss over that and now has an excuse not to raise rates.  Eventually, though, the wealth effect is likely to have trouble keeping up, and this also makes it even harder for the Treasury to raise funds for the federal budget.  So, the positive ranking on this note should be considered strictly short term.

Google has also lost its final appeal against the record €4.1b antitrust fine for abusing competitors via its dominant Android market position.

Enjoy the long weekend!